The NL East is the closet thing the NL has to offer up to compare with the AL East. The Phillies are a perennial powerhouse and a contender for the pennant annually. The Braves continue to contend and have a solid ball club. The Mets have the talent, but injuries have kept them from getting back to the playoffs of late. The Nationals are slowly assembling some good players, particularly with the signing of Jayson Werth. The Marlins, well, are young and potentially dangerous.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Why they will win: The Phillies' rotation have as many aces as a deck of cards. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt rival the mid-90s Braves rotations. Runs will be at a premium for opponents against the Phillies, and the margin for error for opposing pitchers is low. The rotation could definitely carry the Phillies through the year and for a long post-season run.Why they won't win: Injuries. Brad Lidge is going to miss time. Chase Utley is out indefinitely. Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Utley all missed time last year. These guys need to be healthy if the Phillies are to have a fearsome lineup.
What to watch for:
1. Can Ryan Howard hit the breaking ball? Pitchers are not giving the slugger fastballs to hit, so if Howard can learn to hit the breaking ball--especially the opposite way--he will start to hit for a decent average.
2. Jimmy Rollins trying to regain the form he had in his MVP season of 2007. He has not hit over .277 since then, and was sub-.250 in two of those years. He needs to start hitting for average at the top of that lineup again.
2. Atlanta Braves
Why they will win: Pitching. The Braves rotation features Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83), Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Those are four bonafide major league pitchers, two veterans and two up-and-coming stars. The bullpen, while young, has power arms in Craig Kimbrel (4-0, .44) and Jonny Venters (4-4, 1.95).
Why they won't win: Youth. Heyward is coming into his sophomore year, will he slump? Freddie Freeman steps in as the starting first baseman. The bullpen is inexperienced, and likely will have a second-year player as the closer in Kimbrel.
What to watch for: 1. Fredi Gonzalez. How does he handle the managerial duties in Atlanta? Also, the players responses to new leadership, which seem to be entirely positive thus far, and how they may change through the long season.
2. Chipper Jones coming back from a torn ACL. If he is not healthy, he has said he will hang it up. This spring he has been tearing it up and looking like he will have a nice season ahead of him...if he can stay healthy.
3. Florida Marlins
Why they will win: Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. Two of the best players at their positions in the league are up the middle for the Marlins. Ramirez is a fantasy gem, and shows why on the field. Johnson is a legitimate ace and should be for a long time. He has a career ERA of just above 3.00 and just knows how to pitch in this league.
Why they won't win: Youth, youth and more youth. The Marlins are SO young. Chris Coghlan is entering his third year. Mike Stanton is entering his second year. Gaby Sanchez is in essentially his second year. Johnson and Ramirez, though experienced in the league, are still young and have not tasted winning in a large degree yet. How will these guys hold up if they end up in a race for the division at the end of the year?
What to watch for:
1. Will Javier Vasquez regain the form he showed in Atlanta two years ago? Vazquez had a sub-3.00 ERA in that season and won 15 games for the Braves. Last year, back in New York, he struggled. How he pitches will be important for this team.
2. The dynamic of the lineup without Dan Uggla. The team lost the centerpiece of its offense in Uggla, and where that production comes from will be something to keep an eye on.
4. New York Mets
Why they will win: The infield of the Mets is hard not to like. Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy are two solid young players who should be around for a while. Murphy brings some speed and a nice plate approach, while Davis brings more power. David Wright is still performing consistently and Jose Reyes adds speed and excitement to the team.
Why they won't win: Injuries. Just like the Phillies, the Mets are injury-prone. Carlos Beltran has missed a lot of time over the last two seasons. Jason Bay was out for a large amount of time last season. Johan Santana is not expected back until June. Chris Young only pitched in four games last year. These guys are all important to the Mets success, and their health will have a direct effect on that success this year.
What to watch for:
1. Ike Davis in his second year. Davis showed flashes of being great last year. How will he do this year?
2. Who will win games for the rotation? Without Santana until mid-season in the best case scenario, a burden falls on Young to be healthy and win games. Mike Pelfrey, Chris Capuano, RA Dickey and Jon Niese will have to find a way to win games for the Mets.
5. Washington Nationals
Why they will win: Off-season acquisitions. The Nationals roster features many new faces this year, and notable faces, in Rick Ankiel, Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth. These three all have proven to be able to produce, especially Werth, so the Nationals will need to see some production out of those three in particular if they are going to be contenders. Ryan Zimmerman needs some help at the dish for this team to win.
Why they won't win: Pitching. Outside of Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis, the rotation does not have much experience, let alone proven success. This team needs Stephen Strasburg in the rotation to give it that ace it needs. That will not be for a while though.
What to watch for:
1. Pudge Rodriguez is an X-factor for this team. He is a leader behind the plate for a pitching staff with a lot of youth that needs a veteran catcher.
2. Can Strasburg make it back late in the season? Even more, is it worth it for him to try and rush back?
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