Playoff Predictions: American League Edition

American League Division Series

Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays

Why the Rangers will win:

-Hitting. The Rangers had the most hits and highest team batting average in the majors this year. It is pretty simple: these guys can flat out RAKE. The lineup from 2-6 looks like something like this: Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Jeff Francoeur. Even Francoeur has been crushing the ball since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. The Rays pitching staff allowed 175 homers this year, the fifth highest total in baseball. The Rangers should be able to put up runs on them.
-Veteran depth. This roster is filled with veteran players. While few have significant postseason experience apart from Guerrero and Bengie Molina, this team has a lot of established veteran players from top to bottom.

Why the Rangers won't win:

-Pitching. Cliff Lee is a bonafide ace and the trade to get him was pivotal for the Rangers. He starts the series opener, then C.J. Wilson takes the ball in Game 2. Wilson had a great year, without him the Rangers are not here, but he has struggled a little bit of late. He did not win a game in September, with an ERA of 6.26 in the month. He is not the biggest concern though, after him come Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter--both of him had their first taste of big league success this season. All three pitchers after Lee won at least 12 games, but all slowed down as the season progressed.

Why the Rays will win:

-Speed. The Rays led the majors with 172 steals this year, and were successful 78.5% of the time. The Rangers do have Bengie Molina behind the plate, and left-handers Lee and Wilson are hard to run on, but the Rays have shown they can--and will--run on anyone.
-Pitching. The Rays have five players with double-digit win totals this season. The staff is led by AL Cy Young candidate David Price, who went 19-7 with a 2.72 ERA this year. Game 2 starter Jamie Shields has struggled lately, his last win came on August 29, and he gave up 34 home runs. Matt Garza won 15 games this year, and he was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA against the Rangers this year. Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann both won 12 games each, with Davis taking the fourth slot in the rotation for the playoffs. After those guys, the Rays bullpen is loaded. Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, and Dan Wheeler all had great years. Closer Rafael Soriano was one of the best this year, with an ERA of 1.73, and converting 45 of 48 save opportunities.

Why the Rays won't win:

 -Lineup is inconsistent. The Rays were no-hit twice this year, one being a perfect game. They also came one out away from being no-hit a third time. Their bats are just not there. The Rays had only two players hit over .290 (Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria), and only one other player hit over .260. As a team, their batting average ranked 13th of 14 teams in the AL. The bats will have to come alive if the Rays are going to win this series.

Who will win: Rangers in five.


New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins

Why the Yankees will win:

-They are the Yankees. Come October, the Bronx Bombers are at their best. They are the reigning champs, and their roster arguably improved since last season with the additions of Lance Berkman, Curtis Granderson, Austin Kearns, and Kerry Wood. Then you have the players that have been here before...so many times. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera all hold postseason records--so you KNOW they have been here, and they have been successful.
-Big bats with good eyes and good hands. The Yankees hit over 200 home runs this year (some credit can be given to the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium), but they also had the second most walks in the majors. On the flip side, the Yankee defense is as sound as a defense comes. They had the fewest errors in the majors this year with just 69, and led the AL in fielding percentage. They are solid all-around.

Why the Yankees won't win:

-Manager Joe Girardi elected to go with a three-man rotation for this series, meaning that C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte would go on three days rest if the series goes beyond three games. These guys have done that before, but it is still a risk each time a manager chooses to give the ball to someone on little rest. A.J. Burnett will not be getting a start in the ALDS, and Javier Vazquez is not even on the ALDS roster. Both are coming off seasons in which they each won 10 games and posted ERA's over 5.00. If the Yankees first three starters (Phil Hughes being the third) struggle, it could be an interesting series.

Why the Twins will win:

-No freebies. The Twins pitching staff walked just 383 batters this year, the best in the majors by a long ways. The Twins fielding percentage was only .001 behind the Yankees for the best in the AL this year. Joe Mauer is a rock behind the plate, and the importance of that cannot be underestimated. If the Yankees are going to get runners, they will have to hit. It is also worth noting that the Twins bullpen features three closers in Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch.
-They get on base. The Twins had the second  highest on-base percentage in the majors this season. They also ranked in the top three in the AL in hits, doubles and triples. They will get on base, and get plenty of extra-base hits.

Why the Twins won't win:
-History. In the Twins last four postseason appearances (2003, 2004, 2006, 2009), they lost in the ALDS round all four times, while winning just two games in the four series. Three of those series losses came to...the Yankees, including a sweep in the ALDS last year. The Twins are a great regular season team, but they have yet to really put it together in the postseason.

Who will win: Yankees in four.

American League Championship Series 

New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers

-This is a match-up of THE perennial postseason team, with one that has never won a playoff series and has not played in one since 1999. The Rangers have the talent and the players to give it a good run, but ultimately, the Yankees have that upper hand because they are here every year. This has the potential to be an outstanding series, but the Yankees head back to the World Series to defend their crown.

Who will win: Yankees in six.